ATMIS withdrawal may weaken Somalia’s security

Significance

ATMIS is to leave Somalia by end-2024, with the first 2,000 troops set to withdraw this month. However, this plan has already been beset by delays, and there are serious questions about what impact the withdrawal will have on domestic stability.

Impacts

• ATMIS and Somali forces at remote bases will be more vulnerable to al-Shabaab attacks during the transition.
• Recurrent political crises will hamper the government’s ability to support the transition effectively.
• Rumours that Russia’s Wagner Group may deploy to Somalia appear unfounded for now but will still fuel al-Shabaab propaganda.