Syria will struggle to monetise Gulf relations

Significance

The first such visit since 2011 comes days after a Syrian foreign ministerial trip to Saudi Arabia, amid a wider thawing of ties. Riyadh had formerly been the most powerful of the Arab countries holding out against Syrian normalisation.

Impacts

• Warming relations with some Gulf Arab states will provide Assad with added leverage as he seeks to entrench his power on his own terms.
• Gulf governments will be wary of providing direct aid, because of both the risk of sanctions and a lack of trust in Damascus’s commitments.
• Aid will be partly via UN processes, but with a gradual process of increasing bilateral assistance, initially through earthquake relief.
• Narrow channels will open for Gulf businesses to invest in Syria with local partners in areas such as real estate and renewable energy.