Afghan opposition faces protracted crisis

Significance

Unlike Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the other Central Asian states that border Afghanistan, Tajikistan is suspicious of the Taliban government in Kabul. Meanwhile, the NRF and most of Afghanistan’s other armed opposition groups appear too poorly resourced to challenge the Taliban seriously.

Impacts

• Prospective opposition groups, including dissident Taliban in the north, will probably reconsider any plans to begin an insurgency.
• It will likely be easier for the Taliban to concentrate their forces against Islamic State-Khorasan.
• Tajikistan may decide to resolve its differences with the Taliban, thereby depriving Afghan opposition groups of key support.