Iraq's Kurdistan faces loss of oil-export autonomy

Significance

This threatens to end the KRI's oil export autonomy, handing Baghdad a major victory. The closure has taken 450,000 barrels per day (b/d) off the global oil market, raising oil prices by about USD3 per barrel.

Impacts

• The impact of the loss of output on oil prices has been exacerbated by OPEC+’s decision to cut production from May.
• A temporary fix is possible, but political differences make a lasting resolution difficult to achieve.
• If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses the forthcoming election, it will alter Ankara’s policies towards the situation.