Civilian transition would lift Sudan’s economic slump

Significance

Donors have made the formation of a civilian government a condition for the resumption of financing, which halted (except for humanitarian aid) after the October 2021 military coup. The 2023 budget depends largely on domestic revenue, including unrealistic tax projections.

Impacts

• Frequent strikes and political unrest will further interrupt economic activity.
• Speedy government formation could allow recovery to begin in the second half of 2023, bringing growth into positive territory.
• Even if external support resumes, the chronically high trade deficit will drive further foreign exchange shortages.