Tunisian leader holds firm and takes aim at opponents

Significance

The arrests have taken place since the January 29 parliamentary run-off. They are surrounded by a highly conspiratorial narrative: Saied has accused those detained of terrorism, plotting against the state and causing recent food shortages.

Impacts

• Deteriorating economic conditions will increase outward migration, especially among Tunisia’s young and educated.
• Tunisia will struggle to attract foreign investment and will likely see the departure of some multinational companies.
• Tunisia will face growing isolation within the African Union.
• Saied will support Arab normalisation of relations with Syria.