Lebanon’s local port blast investigation will stall

Significance

However, the HRC stopped short of establishing an international probe -- a key demand of Lebanese protesters who complain the local process is stalled. They reject in particular the end-January decision of Lebanon’s top public prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidat, to release all suspects detained so far and to file charges against Judge Tarek Bitar, who has been leading the investigation.

Impacts

• The local balance of power is unlikely to change before upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026.
• Western donors might add a transparent investigation of the port explosion to their list of reforms required to trigger loans and aid.
• Any UN probe would likely produce incriminating evidence that would embarrass and further isolate the Lebanese political establishment.