Ukraine war will erode its Visegrad neighbours’ unity

Significance

The war delivered a shock to Europe’s post-Cold War order -- its security, peace and stability. Economically, it marks a turn in global trade relations, supply chains and energy markets. The past twelve months have been particularly transformative for the Visegrad Four (V4 -- Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia), on the very borders of the conflict.

Impacts

• Should the war escalate into conflict with NATO, it would be disastrous for the European economy, especially the 'frontline' countries.
• If Smer-SD enters government post-election, it could upset Slovakia’s current pro-Ukraine foreign policy and open up rifts with its allies.
• Ineffective cost-of-living support for the vulnerable may affect economic performance, as households exhaust savings and prices remain high.