Schengen enlargement may be delayed further

Significance

Austria vetoed both countries’ accession, ignoring the European Commission’s positive recommendation. The Netherlands opposed only Bulgaria’s entry. Schengen’s non-enlargement reflects both intra-EU disagreements and the politicisation of migration in core member-states.

Impacts

• The EU will pay close attention to the Bulgarian-Turkish border.
• RoL reforms in Bulgaria will be accelerated in order to access extra EU funds.
• A decision to expand Schengen beyond Croatia might upend Austrian domestic politics.