Damascus’s post-quake normalisation hopes may falter

Significance

Egypt is the latest Arab state to reach out to Damascus. Spearheaded by Abu Dhabi, these contacts are eroding the isolation policy that has lasted for over a decade since civil war broke out in 2011. However, most of these countries were already edging towards a policy of ‘normalisation’.

Impacts

• Qatar’s fixed hostility and Saudi caution will hinder Emirati efforts to secure Syria’s return to the Arab League.
• Washington will likely resist Russian-backed Syrian efforts to trade cross-border aid access for sanctions relaxation.
• The disaster will do nothing to quell violence among Syria’s various factions.
• The quake’s political impact on Turkey’s president will be key to Ankara-Damascus normalisation prospects.