Internal divisions cloud Kenyan opposition’s future

Significance

However, losing opposition candidate Raila Odinga still insists the election was rigged and is holding protest rallies to promote his position. This action is reinvigorating support for Odinga among a core base, but undermining it among potential swing voters.

Impacts

• Between Odinga’s protests and Ruto’s thanksgiving meetings, Kenya remains in election mode, which distracts attention from governance.
• The 2022 presidential poll had no real opposition candidate; 2027 may be different and Ruto may seek to gain control of key institutions.
• Odinga’s base distrusts key institutions and currently lacks the numbers to win the 2027 polls, and so may consider disrupting the vote.