East Asia will shape future of outer space

Significance

A fourth, South Korea, may soon join them. The way these countries compete or cooperate in space -- with each other and with extra-regional actors, especially the United States -- will be a major factor shaping the development of human space activity in the years and decades ahead.

Impacts

• SpaceX is so far ahead that no Asian start-up can hope to catch up in the foreseeable future, but strong niche players could emerge.
• South Korea has a small budget and lags far behind its larger neighbours, but its overall high-tech prowess improves its catch-up chances.
• Satellites would play a central role in any future conflict between China and Taiwan, Japan, the United States or India.