Mali's north-south stand-off poses new conflict risks

Significance

This responds to increasing tensions with the Malian junta over the implementation of the 2015 Algiers Accord peace deal. Increasingly heated rhetoric on both sides has aggravated fears of renewed rebellion. Meanwhile, both the junta and the CMA are facing severe challenges in their fight against jihadists.

Impacts

• Foreign powers will lack the leverage to improve peace prospects in northern Mali.
• Junta efforts to delay the political transition back to civilian rule will strain further the existing peace agreement.
• A serious war between the CMA and Malian government forces could elevate risks of a coup against the junta.