Haiti’s security challenges will delay any elections

Significance

The international community is debating whether, and how, to support Haiti’s security forces amid mounting instability. Acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry appointed an Haut Conseil de la Transition (High Transition Council, HCT) on February 6, tasked with planning elections, but no vote can take place until the security situation has stabilised.

Impacts

• In the absence of an effective multinational force supporting Haiti’s police, gangs will continue to seize more and more territory.
• Haiti’s new transition council will struggle to rein in fractious political rivals to participate in the forthcoming elections.
• With no ability to secure the capital in the near term, no vote is likely in 2023.