Balloon episode boosts US National Defense Strategy

Significance

The Biden administration’s delay in shooting down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon has been criticised by Republicans. However, there is bipartisan agreement that the episode reaffirms the conclusion of the recently declassified National Defense Strategy (NDS) that Washington should regard China as its “most consequential strategic competitor”.

Impacts

• The focus on China will shape Pentagon processes and practices beyond the next two years of the Biden presidency.
• There will be increased emphasis on deepening cooperation with NATO, the Quad, AUKUS and other regional partnerships.
• The Republican-controlled House will use hearings to question President Biden’s approach to national security decisions and priorities.
• Concern about transnational threats will be overshadowed by a tighter focus on traditional great power rivalries.