Gulf states will boost oil output to varying degrees

Significance

International decarbonisation calls have prompted the countries to maximise extraction as quickly as possible while demand and prices remain relatively high. Variations in the pace of their respective ramp-ups result primarily from differing political backdrops, fiscal circumstances and relationships with international oil companies (IOCs).

Impacts

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE will become global leaders in technologies lowering the carbon-intensity of oil production.
• IOCs will continue to prioritise Gulf countries where the business environment is good and production costs low.
• Oman, with fewer and higher-cost reserves, will manage output decline while cutting incrementally the carbon footprint of its production.