Morales presidency push may destabilise Bolivia’s MAS

Significance

The main source of tension is the attempt of former President Evo Morales to return to office in the 2025 elections. This has led him to decry the technocratic leadership within the MAS government and, by implication, President Luis Arce, with increasingly radical discourse.

Impacts

• Economic growth and low inflation in the short-to-medium term will help to sustain support for Arce.
• Rifts will persist among Bolivia’s opposition parties.
• Morales’s efforts to provide leadership to pro-indigenous movements abroad may prove problematic for Bolivia’s foreign relations.