Velez vote will strengthen Colombia’s Petro for now

Significance

Velez and her anti-extractive views are broadly unpopular, but the government is unwilling to yield on its conviction that Colombia must wean itself off hydrocarbons. It will pursue policies to that end, despite high global energy prices and a negative economic outlook.

Impacts

• The government will not sign new oil and gas exploration contracts, but existing contracts will stand.
• Regardless of the government’s position, Colombia will depend on domestic oil and gas production to sustain exports.
• The opposition will continue to confront President Petro over poor economic results and inflation.
• Petro’s coalition will face pressure as the economy contracts, and is unlikely to hold beyond the October 2023 local elections.