Tajik and Kyrgyz economies show unexpected strength

Significance

Both have avoided the deep economic crisis that seemed likely in the spring. Income from remittances, on which both rely heavily, has recovered after a dip following the invasion.

Impacts

• Tajik and Kyrgyz nationals considering enlistment in the Russian army will face legal penalties at home.
• Tajik President Emomali Rahmon may use border conflict with Kyrgyzstan to demonstrate power before handing over to his son Rustam.
• Tajikistan must also worry about insurgents crossing from Afghanistan and unrest in the Badakhshan region.