French government faces key risks over coming months

Significance

Resort to Article 49.3, which does not require a parliamentary vote, underscores President Emmanuel Macron's difficulty in governing without a majority. Hopes that the centre-right Republican Party (LR) would support his agenda have so far been disappointed. His other options include further use of Article 49.3, referendums or pre-term legislative elections.

Impacts

• Macron may be forced to make concessions on his pension reforms in order to quell union and social backlash.
• Further strikes in the energy sector are likely, potentially leading to fuel shortages and higher prices over the winter months.
• LR will likely adopt a more right-wing stance after its leadership election in December, especially around culture and identity.