Florida midterms test Republicans and Democrats

Significance

Republican incumbents Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Ron DeSantis look certain to shrug off Democratic challengers on November 8, and the party will increase its representation in Florida’s delegation to the House of Representatives. However, Biden’s visit acknowledged the crucial role that Florida could play in the 2024 presidential election.

Impacts

• GOP consolidation in Florida would reinforce the right of the party, particularly if DeSantis runs for president in 2024 or 2028.
• Florida’s importance for Republicans would be partially undone if DeSantis competes with Trump for the presidency in 2024.
• Midterm evidence of Republican strength in Florida would further reduce White House scope for policy shifts towards Cuba and Venezuela.