Military advances harm Ethiopia’s peace prospects

Significance

The announcement followed multiple calls from international actors for a halt to the fighting, amid a massive federal and Eritrean offensive to capture Shire, a strategic and relatively large town in Tigray, which has generated fears of further displacement and violence against civilians.

Impacts

• The ongoing offensive and alliance with Eritrea will unravel Ethiopia’s relations with Western partners.
• Ongoing conflict may further delay debt restructuring talks and an IMF mission, exacerbating the economic stresses the country faces.
• The humanitarian situation in Tigray will worsen, as aid has been halted and war will disrupt the ongoing harvest season.