Yemen’s war will restart if UN talks fail

Significance

Both sides -- the internationally recognised Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and the Huthi -- appear ready to give Grundberg a little more time to secure a new agreement. However, both are preparing for renewed conflict as minor clashes take place on several fronts. Oman is attempting to mediate.

Impacts

• The breakdown of the truce will threaten the UN operation to safely transfer oil from the decaying tanker SFO Safer.
• An explosion or oil leak would cause an environmental catastrophe and damage desalination units.
• An Iranian nuclear deal could result in Tehran encouraging the Huthi to scale back military operations and agree another truce.