Union-government conflict in France will persist

Significance

The French government is using its emergency powers to break a two-week strike at five of the country's eight refineries, which has caused fuel shortages nationwide. Union action also threatens to disrupt electricity production this winter; more than half of the country's nuclear reactors are currently offline for maintenance or repair.

Impacts

• The strikers lack public sympathy, but that could change if strike action persists and coincides with wider anti-government sentiment.
• Social unrest over pension reforms may make the Republican Party less likely to give vital parliamentary backing for the reforms.
• Failure to pass pension reforms could prompt Macron to call early legislative elections next year.