Mexico will prioritise US ties over China

Significance

China nevertheless remains Mexico’s second-largest trade partner. Foreign direct investment (FDI) from China has also grown recently, reaching a historical record in net inflows in 2021.

Impacts

• AMLO will probably step up hostile rhetoric towards foreign investors ahead of the 2024 elections, exacerbating business uncertainty.
• Deteriorating security in Mexico will dissuade Chinese investors, particularly in mining, infrastructure and agriculture.
• Chinese investors will continue to focus on northern states, despite government efforts to boost southern investment.