Abortion unlikely to be a central issue in US midterms

Significance

Democrats have been counting on the Court’s decision, handed down in June but leaked in February, to help galvanise the party’s support base. However, household economic concerns and intraparty divisions may reduce its impact in the two months remaining before the midterm elections.

Impacts

• It remains unclear whether those for whom abortion is their single political issue will be more or less active following Dobbs.
• Most Republican candidates will make economic issues the core of their campaign; Democrats will increasingly focus on Donald Trump.
• Despite evidence that the Dobbs decision was coming, Democrats have been slow to get pro-abortion initiatives on midterm ballots.