Commercial aerospace faces mounting uncertainties

Significance

A welcome surge in demand for air travel has brought with it the need to rapidly re-build capacity, but airlines, airports and aircraft manufacturers have struggled to meet near-term needs fully. While balance sheets are recovering, deteriorating economic and security environments pose further unwelcome pressure.

Impacts

• Airbus and Boeing will look to increasing narrow-body passenger aircraft production rates to meet demand.
• Supply chain issues may well constrain the capacity to increase narrow body rates.
• The volatility of China-US relations has direct and indirect implications for commercial aerospace.
• Airline economic performance will improve more in 2023, contingent on no further weakening in the global economy or security environment.