Political violence and democracy risks rise in Brazil

Significance

With just over two months to go before the first round of the October general elections, the far-right president continues to lag in polls. In response, Bolsonaro has adopted populist economic measures and doubled down on his attacks on Brazil’s democratic institutions and voting system.

Impacts

• Bolsonaro is unlikely to have the support of most generals for a coup, but divisions within the military are apparent.
• Most of society and the media would oppose a coup, as would the US government.
• Brazil is likely to face a chaotic period of post-election instability.