Mongolia will recover from dual shocks

Significance

The country's recovery from COVID-19 impacts has been hindered by China's prolonged border closures and the economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. COVID-19 will continue to influence politics, policy and the economy over the year ahead.

Impacts

• Proposed constitutional amendments could further define the structure of the Mongolian state and the nature of its democracy.
• Political pressure from Russia will generate debates among the public, highlighting pro-Russian as well as China-specific sentiments.
• China will continue to import Mongolian mineral products, but prices will be determined in an uncertain international environment.
• Inflation and global food shortages will be felt particularly acutely in Mongolia due to its dependence on China as a source of imports.