Unexpected death may trigger power struggles in Cuba

Significance

A year on from the historic July 2021 protests, worsening economic realities are perpetuating popular discontent. However, renewed large-scale unrest remains unlikely; high-profile opposition voices have left Cuba, and draconian jail sentences for arrested protesters have had a chilling effect on public action.

Impacts

• Lopez-Calleja’s successor as head of GAESA will not inherit his unique power and influence, potentially fostering intra-military tensions.
• High summer temperatures will increase the prospects of unrest, but the police will be ready to crack down quickly.
• While US relations have eased somewhat recently, a return to Obama-era engagement is unlikely.