Czech EU presidency could lift Poland’s fund blockage

Significance

This is an opportunity for the new Czech government to differentiate itself from the other ‘Visegrad Four’ (V4) countries, and Poland and Hungary in particular, in terms of EU concerns about the rule of law (RoL). Prague professes to aspire to be a neutral arbiter between them and EU institutions.

Impacts

• A continuing freeze on the recovery funds allocated to Poland would be a blow for Warsaw ahead of the 2023 parliamentary vote.
• If the dispute over the Turow coalmine reignites in the next months, Czech government would have more leverage for concessions from Poland.
• Any further scandals involving the Czech government would increase its need to appear tough on RoL.
• Czech support could become more important for Hungary if it pursues a compromise with the EU over RoL conditionality.