EU-UK compromise unlikely until UK politics changes

Significance

The scope of the bill -- which could enable London to remove the role of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) and end the application of EU rules to value-added tax (VAT) and competition in Northern Ireland -- underscores the extent to which the UK government has allowed hardline Eurosceptics to dictate policy.

Impacts

• Out of the potential candidates to replace Boris Johnson, Liz Truss is building herself up to be the hardest-line on EU relations.
• Recent history suggests Johnson will discard DUP concerns about the Protocol if an agreement with the EU suits his political interests.
• Even if a trade war does not happen, the poor state of EU-UK relations threatens to dampen investment and increase economic uncertainty.