Nigerian election will increase Middle Belt violence

Significance

The attacks were the bloodiest and highest-profile acts of violence in Plateau State in recent months and reflect a trend of growing rural violence in the north-central states frequently referred to as the Middle Belt. The possible contribution of north-western bandits and north-eastern jihadists to regional security problems further complicate the picture.

Impacts

• Recent Taraba State bombings claimed by Islamic State West Africa Province may heighten distrust among Christians towards Muslims.
• Middle Belt urban areas such as Jos may see an uptick in ethno-religious clashes due to inflammatory campaign rhetoric.
• Rural insecurity affecting transport routes may worsen food price increases in urban areas.
• The phenomenon of mass school kidnappings may spread to the Middle Belt.