Congo faces a period of shifting alliances

Significance

Kabila, meanwhile, on May 22 staged a public handshake with former Katanga Governor Moise Katumbi, a former ally turned bitter rival, raising yet more speculation over how the former president will position himself ahead of the next polls.

Impacts

• An alliance with Kabila has many advantages, but the political costs may be even higher as the former president was deeply unpopular.
• Rising insecurity may hurt Tshisekedi’s popularity but blaming Rwanda for recent escalations could help offset this.
• Political uncertainty will worsen governance in the long run-up to elections.