Colombia election may trigger a close-fought run-off

Significance

Conservative, continuity candidate Federico Gutierrez still appears to be Petro’s closest challenger. However, a late surge by populist Rodolfo Hernandez has shocked the establishment and could see him pip Gutierrez to a June 19 run-off. Widespread frustration and political polarisation will complicate governance for the next administration, whoever wins.

Impacts

• The support of the nearly one million Colombians registered to vote abroad will probably fall largely in Petro’s favour.
• A narrow Petro loss in June would pose risks of immediate unrest, given his supporters’ long-standing expectations of success.
• Concerns that a Petro presidency would result in Venezuela’s economic crisis being replicated in Colombia are unfounded.