Bosnian political crisis deepens ahead of election

Significance

The discussions reaffirmed Bosnia’s European path, but did little to resolve a growing political rift between Bosniak, Croat and Serb leaders ahead of elections in October. A reshaping of the country’s constitutional framework is possible, though fears of outright state breakup are likely overblown. The crisis is viewed as the most severe Bosnia-Hercegovina has faced since the 1990s.

Impacts

• Bosnia-Hercegovina’s security will remain a matter of high importance for the West due to the potential spillover in the region.
• Pressure from the Croatian government risks undermining the EU’s and NATO’s responses to the war in Ukraine.
• If the EU grants ‘candidate status’ to Ukraine but not Bosnia-Hercegovina, it would be seen as a great injustice in Sarajevo.