Ukraine war will amount to attrition and modest gains

Significance

His assessment is shared by US intelligence officials and most commentators outside Moscow. Russia has narrowed its military aims but territorial advances from week to week are minimal. Plans to annex Ukrainian land depend on capturing sufficient territory, securing it and governing it -- all a long way off.

Impacts

• The shift to concentrated ground warfare increases Ukraine's need for Western military aid, which will be forthcoming.
• The war effort will drain Ukraine's finances, prompting the government to push for more multilateral and bilateral lending.
• The Ukrainian economy is likely to contract by around one-third this year.