Regional Congo security plan may disappoint and divide

Significance

The initiative has already seen talks begin between the Congolese government and various armed groups. It also foresees a regional military intervention to tackle ‘negative’ forces who resist a political solution.

Impacts

• Defining the operational, logistical and financial parameters of the intervention may prove complex amid still-tense regional relations.
• Military intervention may spur a new flurry of armed group mobilisations and realignments, with likely attendant violence.
• The plan could hurt the president’s waning popularity, especially if specific controversies arise.