Burkina Faso junta will resist outside pressure

Significance

ECOWAS threatened to impose sanctions for failure to comply, but has subsequently granted a short although undefined extension. The junta under coup leader President Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba had on March 1 unveiled a planned 36-month transition timetable, which ECOWAS had rejected as too long.

Impacts

• Damiba will look to maintain the appearance of negotiating in good faith with ECOWAS.
• Burkina Faso's junta will view any weak ECOWAS response to Guinea's longer transition plans as an incentive to refuse major concessions.
• Failure to rein in security force abuses will undermine the effectiveness of local negotiations with jihadist groups.