Radical group normalises its policies in Syria

Significance

The softer approach, evident also in HTS’s tolerance of Sufis and suppression of its erstwhile jihadi allies, reflects a desire for acceptance domestically and internationally. The military balance in northwestern Syria gives HTS a chance to consolidate its rule.

Impacts

• HTS will exploit factional disputes within the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army to increase its influence in Idlib.
• Political differences will only allow security cooperation between HTS and the Syrian National Army.
• Cooperation on technical issues will be possible between the Syrian Salvation Government and the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Government.