Deeper EU defence integration faces challenges

Significance

Supporters of EU strategic autonomy believe that the invasion of Ukraine will result in a significant increase in member state support for EU defence cooperation and integration. Such a prospect has been bolstered by backing from the United States and European publics.

Impacts

• Defeat for French President Emmanuel Macron in April’s elections, though unlikely, would greatly damage hopes for EU defence integration.
• Germany’s defence spending plans will face bureaucratic and political obstacles.
• Reform to EU fiscal rules will likely facilitate capacity for greater investment in strategic areas, such as defence.