West African security aid will produce limited results

Significance

This has been compounded by a recent wave of coups in West Africa by Western-trained officers. Both of these trends, along with continued human rights abuses by state security forces, have contributed to increasing concern within Western states about the value and efficacy of their assistance efforts.

Impacts

• The European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM) may be reduced in size or ended altogether.
• The increasing European, French and US reliance on Niger may increase vulnerabilities in that country, including risks of a coup.
• West African states may look to intensify their security partnerships with non-Western partners such as China and Turkey.
• Increasing diplomatic isolation may hinder Russian ambitions in West Africa.