Attacks on South Africa’s constitution will increase

Significance

The constellation of political and social forces crystallised in the 1996 constitutional compromise has broken down. In part this relates to persistently high poverty, gaping inequality, systemic ruling party corruption and unfulfilled promises. These have combined to fuel growing anti-constitutional populism that threatens the constitutional settlement.

Impacts

• The reintroduction of a land expropriation bill this year may exacerbate ruling party tensions.
• Failure to prosecute those implicated in a recent state-capture inquiry will undermine Ramaphosa's authority.
• The longer-term independence of the court system will partly depend on the outcome of ANC factional struggles.