Fear of Russia mutes South Caucasus responses

Significance

Georgia's evolving position on the conflict has been confused: a refusal to support sanctions followed by a sudden application for EU membership. Armenia's moral qualms are sidelined by its near-total reliance on Russia. Azerbaijan is reticent but is pursuing an even-handed approach.

Impacts

• EU efforts to find alternative gas sources will focus partly on Azerbaijan.
• Georgia's EU application will not be helped by its ambivalence on Ukraine.
• Russia's economic problems will feed into Armenia, Azerbaijan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.