Niger risks blowback for hosting French forces

Significance

Basing more soldiers in Niger will allow France to continue operating in the volatile 'tri-border' zone between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Yet increased French reliance on Niger will exacerbate political risks for the Nigerien government, the last civilian-led government standing in the tri-border region after coups in Mali (August 2020 and May 2021) and Burkina Faso (January 2022).

Impacts

• Niamey is encircled by insecure districts and may now become an even more alluring target for jihadist attacks.
• Nigerien-Nigerian relations will take on added importance as the two remaining civilian-led democracies in the sub-region.
• France will also rely more heavily on Chad’s junta, undermining efforts to end dictatorships in the region.