Sanctions end aids Burundi but may entrench old flaws

Significance

This move, which was evidently coordinated and timed to coincide with President Evariste Ndayishimiye’s Brussels visit during the EU-African Union Summit, represents a major victory for Burundi. For Western states, it marks a 180-degree policy turnaround, which is particularly remarkable given how little has changed on the ground.

Impacts

• The move will strengthen Burundi’s hand in conflicts with armed insurgencies such as RED-Tabara, which have intensified since December.
• Relations with Rwanda will continue to improve, boosting both economies but leaving political refugees in Rwanda in a precarious position.
• Restoring relations with Western states should help Burundi accelerate progress on the key infrastructural projects already underway.
• Real domestic reconciliation would require all actors to be open about resolving past divisions, which nobody seems inclined towards yet.