Nigerian jihadists will increase humanitarian risks

Significance

The scale and scope of these attacks attest to the group’s increasing geographical reach since it overran and defeated Abubakar Shekau’s Boko Haram faction last year in its Sambisa Forest stronghold. ISWAP is threatening the activity of humanitarian aid organisations, which it considers legitimate targets.

Impacts

• Deliveries of new armoured vehicles and drones will intensify government ground operations and combat patrols.
• ISWAP may resort to more targeting of civilians if military dynamics turn against it.
• Aid actors will be confronted with increasing accessibility challenges along main supply routes.