New alignment will help Iran’s foreign policy-making

Significance

The inauguration of President Ibrahim Raisi’s administration in August 2021 marked an end to his predecessor Hassan Rouhani’s moderate foreign policy outlook. The new government immediately sharpened its rhetoric towards the West while also returning to nuclear negotiations with clearer demands but less flexibility than their predecessors. However, this change should not be understood as a fundamental policy shift by Tehran, but rather a consequence of the ideological alignments that took place following the presidential election.

Impacts

• The elected and unelected components in the political system should support a nuclear deal, if agreed.
• If a nuclear deal is agreed, then Iranian interference in Lebanon may become less divisive.
• If a nuclear deal is not agreed, the state will encourage increased activities by proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
• Removal of sanctions through nuclear diplomacy would ease economic pressure and therefore reasons for protests.