West African coups will challenge ECOWAS's credibility

Significance

At a January 9 summit, the bloc imposed sweeping sanctions on Mali, whose junta has repeatedly sought to sidestep ECOWAS demands for a rapid transition. Guinea’s military rulers also face ECOWAS pressure to set an election timetable.

Impacts

• ECOWAS will likely compromise with Mali and Guinea, if there is a way for all sides to save face.
• ECOWAS will make generic calls for an election timetable in Burkina Faso.
• The emergence of a West African ‘coup bloc’ of Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali may increase regional tensions.
• Regional trends and domestic tensions increase the coup risk in Niger.