Iran’s state can manage intensified new-model protests

Significance

In November, farmers gathered in Isfahan to complain about water scarcity. Teachers, miners, pensioners and municipal workers have also protested in recent months against a background of high inflation, as government spending is curtailed by the effects of US sanctions.

Impacts

• The government may crack down on new efforts by hydrocarbons workers and others to adopt trade union-style practices.
• Geographically based competition between groups seeking scarce resources such as water and electricity is likely to intensify.
• High inflation is likely to persist as the government struggles to balance its budget, with the likelihood of further subsidy cuts.
• Western efforts to back protests will help hardliners further sideline calls for reform, citing national security and religious identity.